>>
>>2006459 (OP)
Why are you so afraid?
Buy the dip.
>>
>>2006459 (OP)
Nope. Not gonna happen. There are too many people who 'buy the dip' atm. The only possibility of an 70-80% market correction would be something similar to WW3 breaking out, with a superior enemy (Or team or superior enemies) specifically targeting the United States or attempting to destroy the financial system.
An 80% market correction would require a nuke hitting NYC, or an assassination of the president, or some TRULY messed up destruction of fundamental investing.
>>
>>2006459 (OP)
Do like me and just buy 3x leveraged inverse ETFs
>>
>>
>>2006517
You are right. The DOW dropped from 13,000 to around 6,500. So a 50% drop. And you are right. People 'thought' it was the end of everything and everyone. But there were other people. And those people were like 'Its time to buy the dip'.
>>
>>
>>
thats supreme divine right king bosx EMPEROR OF THE UNIVERSE 2 u mate (ID: PkMnrMm8) 04/29/17(Sat)14:37:20 No.2006565▶
File: asteroid_mining_trillion_(...).jpg (198 KB, 1233x782)
>>2006524
everyday i PRAY for a market valuation collapse
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>2006459 (OP)
OP your chart is literally already wrong. According to it we should already be halfway down the slide.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
File: Screenshot_20170429-140452_01.png (691 KB, 1080x855)
>>2006459 (OP)
>Never happened.
>>
>>2006629
Well, heres the kicker:
>When?
When is the dip coming?
>2013: The US debt is unsustainable!
>2014: Housing prices are in a bubble!
>2015: Stocks are overvalued!
>2016: Student loan crisis!
>2017: Subprime auto loans!
When is the dip coming? Everyone and their mother has been waiting for fucking ever.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>2006652
1. Us has always been in debt, if the us defaults, then that's game over. Every professional knows this.
2. Not even close to 08, plus in 14' housing prices are so inflated people couldnt afford the money down for homes.
3. Literally no one would be upset about this
4. Yes
5. Yes
Retard
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>2006459 (OP)
If you're worried about a big sell off, only buy dividend paying stocks that will have a safe dividend even in a big sell off. That way you'll still generate a reasonable income while the stock market is down as you're not relying on value.
Then when the stock market does crater, buy like crazy as you'll dollar cost average any value loss that happened from the crash and come out ahead by the future recovery and dividend gain.
Remember, there's always a way to hedge the market if you're worried.
>>
File: 1475538965345.png (17 KB, 900x900)
>>2006685
It doesn't mean "inherently bad."
It means "good chance of a correction."
That's why it's concerning.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
thats supreme divine right king bosx EMPEROR OF THE UNIVERSE 2 u mate (ID: PkMnrMm8) 04/29/17(Sat)15:42:09 No.2006757▶
File: 1million-billion-1trillio(...).gif (80 KB, 620x395)
>>2006735
if a few million dollar order affects your trading strategy you need to rethink your entire approach to trading.
>>
>>
File: [Phoenixing Intensifies].gif (1.78 MB, 265x257)
>>2006959
>Bailouts
How? and fuckin why?
>>
>>2006757
Hedge funds have special brokers that would never serve the retail trader, its another game just trying to get your position on with bigger positions. No matter what, the market makers see them miles away and scalp them out because they can
>>
>>
>>2006652
2009: Dead cat bounce!
2010: Fake rally!
2011: Slowdown signals the end is near!
2012: The fundamentals are terrible!
>>2013: The US debt is unsustainable!
>>2014: Housing prices are in a bubble!
>>2015: Stocks are overvalued!
>>2016: Student loan crisis!
>>2017: Subprime auto loans!
>>
thats supreme divine right king bosx EMPEROR OF THE UNIVERSE 2 u mate (ID: PkMnrMm8) 04/29/17(Sat)17:10:55 No.2007153▶
File: 23UP-SUB-big-short-master675.jpg (71 KB, 675x450)
>>2007101
i'm guessing you day trade penny stocks and your here bitching and trying to refocus blame on your constant misfortunes from your own fundamental ignorance ?
>>
>>
>>
File: 1493487985756.jpg (97 KB, 800x599)
>>2006459 (OP)
fixed
>>
>>
>>
>>2006459 (OP)
>technical analysis
>ever
>>
>>
File: 5d6c354d65ab173acf6e0f130(...).png (26 KB, 125x125)
If any of you say the consumer report from friday you could see that the end has already started. Every single retail store is essentially worthless. The reits that own the land/stores that those stores are on is worthless. Companies that are currently worth billions/trillions in combined market cap are essentially worthless. Everyone is slowly getting there jobs fucked by online shopping/robotics. Everyone will be poor there will be no jobs and companies like amazon and other e companies will be essentially worthless because everyone will be living in poverty. Market collapse complete neets will inherit the earth.
>>
>>2006459 (OP)
Why the fuck is the chart logarithmic
>>
>>2006656
So who will be impacted? Will college institutions go bust from not getting the money, will they ask for our diplomas back or revoke them? or will the banks go bust? Honestly wondering.
>production designer currently paying heavy student loans
>>
>>2006656
Thing is, the 2008 crash was predictable in the sense that if you knew the packages contained subprime mortgages you could deduce shit was going to hit the fan the moment the rates were adjusted. What is the trigger going to be with the student loans? Millions of exstudents suddenly defaulting on their debt, how and when?
>>
>>
>>2007153
Reminder that this guy fell asleep during surgery while doing his internship.
Reminder that this guy had no formal training in financing.
Reminder this guy basically just read Security Analysis&co and applied that shit to the stock market.
Reminder that because this guy let Mr Market be his servant, not his guide, and read up on his shit he picked up on all the red flags leading up to 2008.
Reminder this guy was making big bucks long before 2008.
Reminder that if you think only massive institutions "in the know" can make money on the market, then you are nothing like this guy, which is a shame because this guy is pretty dope.
>>
>>
>>
>>2008348
Whoever holds the debt will be impacted since they won't be getting paid (assuming the scenario happens and a good portion of students default on their loans).
Now when you bring derivatives into the picture like CDS shit gets real fucking messy because these instruments can generally not handle mass defaults, they themselves default and then before you know it and you are up shitcreek domino alley with shit defaulting left right and center (sorta like 2008).
Of course the question is why, how and when would all these students fail to pay their debts.
In 2008 mortgages were being sold to people who couldn't really afford them, but then being passed as triple A nonetheless by clever repackaging of these mortgages. People and funds all over the country buy into this because "lol who doesn't pay their mortgage?" then along comes the rate adjustment of the in fact anything but triple A mortgages and people start to default on their mortgages, they become virtually worthless. Rating agencies are corrupt and keep the rating high for long enough to allow the big players to unload these now worthless defaulted mortgages after which the ratings are adjusted and everything just fucking plummets.
Basically for the same to be true for studentloans, studentloans would have to be given to students who can not realistically ever hope to cover the costs, but being past of as if they could anyway (i.e. triple A).
The people who shorted the housing market in 08 identified the trigger which they expected to cause the crash (rate adjustment of mortgages), if you can't identify a potential trigger for a potential student loan crash then you have no idea when to short and will just be throwing money down the drain.
>>
>>2008471
The movie is the Big Short, the guy has his name on the table in that picture.
He is educated as MD but turned his financing hobby into his actual job in, I believe, his late twenties early thirties or so. He is generally followed the ideas of value investing and made a lot of money in doing so, made a bit of a name for himself and got to manage a hedge fund. He used this fund to make extremely big $$$ by shorting the housing market in 08.
>>
>>2008466
LEAPS are just long term options, so they have a few years before they expire, unlike other options that have months. An option comes in two major forms, a call and a put. A put is something that says "I have the right to sell at X price after a given time" and a call is something that says "I have to buy at X price after a given time."
So a put is the ability to sell, and a call is the ability to buy, at a given price. Depending on the time horizon or price, the cost of this option changes, it can be used as either a way to make money or to just hedge and buy insurance. All options are bought for increments of 100 shares of a stock.
Some people do a lot with options, others don't really touch them at all. The market is vast and allows for many methods of trading and investing.
>>
>>
>>2008475
Isn't the thing about student loans that they can't be defaulted on realistically and most are FAFSA loans, so they eventually eat into the social security of the person that has them? It feels like the student loan bubble is more about allowing social security to exist, than actually people making money as they are government backed.
I guess the loans can be sold to other companies, but how often does that happen?
>>2008481
Thanks, I'll have to look into it. Outside from the property I bought around the '08 period I know very little about the names and such that surround the real estate market. It's always interesting to see what investors think about it though.
>>
>>
>>
>>2008496
Not a lot really, I don't do too much with emerging markets and really I just avoid Greece as a whole since I'm not a fan of their economy as a whole.
One thing to know about the market as a whole though, is that it's a huge place and there are tons of different things to do in it, there's really no one correct way. So when someone claims that there is, it's usually good to take their views with a grain of salt.
>>
>>
>>
>>2008512
There really aren't any guides, it's too murky of a thing.
As for sights, I think Seeking Alpha is usually a good place to read things, but not to take advice. There have been some controversies there, and it's very junky, but it's a good place to start thinking about things. Warning though, Seeking Alpha can be a real meme sometimes.
As for taking things further, MorningStar (M*) is a good resource, they have some articles and videos, but really they just have a good layout and can look up a lot of information for free from them. Then visit the company webpage from there for any stock you look up, and find the "investor relations" section to learn what you need. Plus M* has all the 10Q and 10K filings so you don't need to go to the SEC website if you want financials.
If you're really new and want a starter guide. I think Martin Shkreli made a good youtube series about basic concepts, it's a bit cringy at times but covers a lot of the basics. Don't take everything he says for fact, but try to understand where he's coming from, just search up "Martin Shkreli" on youtube.
Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger also put out news letters and such consistently which can be good light reading.
>>
>>
>>2008544
No problem, I'm off for now.
Though remember, a lot of the market isn't about mooning or whatever, it's about making a plan and understanding when to get in or get out. That doesn't just mean when to buy or sell in one go with all of your funds, but rather how to dollar cost average and such things like that. It's the same as when Peter Lynch says "invest in what you know", it doesn't mean buy shit that you use, it means buy stock you can understand in terms of BV, EPS, and so forth. You only really have to be right 3 out of 5 times if you understand how to mitigate loss and why you're buying something. I mean you can make all the right choices, and still get the wrong out come, the same is true for the opposite though.
>>
>>2008493
The student loans used to be 100% privately owned with the government guaranteeing "here and there", Clinton and later changed this. Right now pretty much all student loan debts are either owned or guaranteed by the US government, or in short the taxpayer. There are still some privately owned student loans though which are not guaranteed, on paper you could short these if for some reason you expect the student loans to be defaulted on for some reason.
A massive crash like 2008 is absolutely not possibly through a mass student loan debt default alone, as well over 90% of it has the US government as guarantor, or the government as owner (and in effect then the taxpayer as guarantor). The US government would have to default for student loan debts alone to become a market concern.
That Doctor investor from the film was never really that involved in real estate btw. he made the big money's by realizing mortgage backed securities were filled with what we're in fact sub prime mortgages, he then bought credit default swaps on these MBSs predicting that people would default on mortgages once the rates were adjusted, and they did. In short he made billions by betting on thousands upon thousands of Americans becoming homeless. iirc he felt pretty shitty about it afterwards and stopped managing the fund.
Apropos, there is more and more talk about banning naked CDS trading, so copycatting 2008 short sellers in future anogolous situations might not even be possible.
>>
>>
>>
No comments:
Post a Comment
Public Comments